《计算机应用研究》|Application Research of Computers

基于意见领袖的微博生命周期预测模型研究

Research on life cycle prediction model of micro-blog based on opinion leaders

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作者 黄贤英,杨林枫,刘小洋,高民东
机构 重庆理工大学 计算机科学与工程学院,重庆 400054
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文章编号 1001-3695(2019)03-012-0701-05
DOI 10.19734/j.issn.1001-3695.2017.09.0945
摘要 为了有效研究社交网络中意见领袖在新浪微博传播所起的作用及微博的生命周期和传播模式,提出了一种OLB微博传播预测模型。通过爬取微博数据进行数据分析,拟合出与影响力有关的四个因素的数学表达式,并通过层次分析法给出权重计算方法;利用计算的影响力以及转发数与相关因素的关系,构建出OLB模型,从而对意见领袖传播作用及微博生命周期进行实验预测分析。仿真结果表明,在微博信息传播中意见领袖影响力与其微博的传播作用成正比例关系,通过误差分析得到四组数据的平均误差值分别为1.0%、5.0%、2.4%及5.1%,提出的OLB模型对于预测微博传播模式合理、有效。
关键词 传播模型;意见领袖;影响力;微博生命周期
基金项目 国家教育部人文社科青年基金资助项目(16YJC860010)
国家社科基金资助项目(17XXW004)
重庆市教委人文社会科学研究项目(17SKG144)
重庆市社会科学规划博士项目(2015BS059)
本文URL http://www.arocmag.com/article/01-2019-03-012.html
英文标题 Research on life cycle prediction model of micro-blog based on opinion leaders
作者英文名 Huang Xianying, Yang Linfeng, Liu Xiaoyang, Gao Mindong
机构英文名 CollegeofComputerScience&Engineering,ChongqingUniversityofTechnology,Chongqing400054,China
英文摘要 In order to study the role of opinion leaders in the dissemination of Sina micro-blog and the propagation mode of micro-blog’s life cycle in social networks effectively, this paper proposed a propagation prediction OLB model. Firstly, it crawled the micro-blog data, then analyzed the data. Secondly, it fitted a mathematical expression of the four factors related to influence, and gave the weights calculation method through the analytic hierarchy process. Finally, it constructed the OLB model by using the influence of computation and the relationship between forwarding number and related factors. It analyzed the communication role of opinion leaders and micro-blog life cycle through the experiment. The simulation results show that the influence of opinion leaders is positively proportional to the spread of micro-blog in micro-blog information dissemination. The average error of the four sets of data are 1.0%, 5.0%, 2.4% and 5.1% respectively by error analysis. The OLB model is reasonable and effective for predicting micro-blog propagation patterns.
英文关键词 communication model; opinion leader; influence; micro-blog life cycle
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收稿日期 2017/9/13
修回日期 2017/10/25
页码 701-705,761
中图分类号 TP391;TP301.6
文献标志码 A